Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.016203 0.018327 0.020627 0.023300 0.026326 0.029643 0.033557
2025-10-12 0.013000 0.015962 0.019440 0.023828 0.029219 0.035634 0.043858
2025-10-19 0.011288 0.014660 0.018846 0.024428 0.031688 0.040826 0.053228
2025-10-26 0.009797 0.013321 0.017898 0.024288 0.032993 0.044467 0.060784
2025-11-02 0.008709 0.012322 0.017203 0.024292 0.034348 0.048142 0.068577
2025-11-09 0.007697 0.011282 0.016300 0.023849 0.034952 0.050739 0.074994
2025-11-16 0.007072 0.010709 0.015964 0.024132 0.036549 0.054794 0.083783
2025-11-23 0.006417 0.010011 0.015363 0.023933 0.037366 0.057712 0.091060
2025-11-30 0.006042 0.009695 0.015288 0.024500 0.039363 0.062528 0.101624
2025-12-07 0.005418 0.008925 0.014436 0.023754 0.039197 0.063920 0.106802
2025-12-14 0.004952 0.008363 0.013857 0.023381 0.039575 0.066167 0.113510
2025-12-21 0.004478 0.007743 0.013127 0.022683 0.039332 0.067339 0.118452
2025-12-28 0.004335 0.007679 0.013326 0.023595 0.041935 0.073560 0.132756
2026-01-04 0.004139 0.007504 0.013321 0.024152 0.043966 0.078962 0.146105
2026-01-11 0.003968 0.007358 0.013349 0.024759 0.046124 0.084740 0.160612
2026-01-18 0.003701 0.007011 0.012987 0.024617 0.046882 0.088024 0.170719
2026-01-25 0.003479 0.006729 0.012718 0.024621 0.047902 0.091854 0.182167
2026-02-01 0.003218 0.006349 0.012236 0.024172 0.048007 0.093941 0.190354
2026-02-08 0.003072 0.006180 0.012137 0.024459 0.049568 0.098948 0.204782
2026-02-15 0.002879 0.005903 0.011808 0.024257 0.050126 0.102005 0.215460
2026-02-22 0.002788 0.005823 0.011862 0.024832 0.052313 0.108497 0.233843
2026-03-01 0.002564 0.005451 0.011295 0.024076 0.051656 0.109090 0.239679
2026-03-08 0.002397 0.005183 0.010924 0.023698 0.051767 0.111281 0.249145